Spot the Losers

You’ve got hiring backwards.

Your hunting for the perfect candidate. The A++ player.

The one who'll transform your business.

Buuuuuuttttt I’ve got a secret….. you can't predict who'll be great.

You just can't!

What you can do?

Spot who definitely WON’T be.

Falsification is the more robust form of knowledge.

The Black Swan Problem

You can rarely prove something's true by finding examples.

Seeing 100 white swans doesn't prove all swans are white.

But if you see one black swan, you've disproven the claim that all swans are white.

One counter-example destroys everything.

Same with people.

You'll never know for certain someone's amazing by looking at their LinkedIn and interviewing them 35 times.

But you'll know they're wrong for you the moment they do something disqualifying.

Guy shows up 15 minutes late and doesn't apologize?

Done.

Woman can't explain what she actually did at her last job?

Next.

Someone interrupts you three times in ten minutes?

Goodbye.

Why Prediction Fails

Traditional hiring is fantasy football.

You're drafting based on stats that don't predict performance.

"This person has an MBA from XYZY!"

So what?

"They increased revenue 40% at their last company!"

In what context? With whose help? During which market conditions?

It’s false precision

Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

We know this with investments.

So….why do we forget it with people?

Why Falsification Works

Because some things are universal deal breakers.

Doesn't matter what industry, what role, what company culture.

Some behaviors predict failure everywhere (particularly around ATTRIBUTES).

Can't communicate clearly?

Done.

Show up unprepared?

Done.

The Speed Advantage

Here's the beautiful part: falsification is fast.

Building a positive case takes forever (and as mentioned, doesn’t really prove anything).

Multiple interviews, reference checks, portfolio reviews, skills tests.

You're still guessing.

Falsification cab take minutes. One conversation. One interaction.

When someone shows you who they are, you believe them.

What This Looks Like

Stop asking, "Will this person be great?"

Start asking, "Is there any reason this person definitely won't work?"

Create your non-negotiables list.

Mine includes:

• Shows up on time

• Smart & Hungry

• Cool

• Coachable

• Asks good questions

Fail any of these? We're done. Doesn't matter how impressive the resume is.

Your New Hiring Filter

Don't hire for potential.

Hire by elimination.

Your job is to avoid hiring people who'll definitely fail.

Much easier. Much faster. Much more accurate.

Most business owners spend months finding the "perfect" candidate. Then spend years managing the problems they could've spotted in the first meeting.

Eliminate people in the here and now… and save the fancy assessments and drawn out interview process for your silly competitors.

Yallah Habibi,

Jon

P.S.

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